Bulls Keep Pushing
One of the most obvious signs of strength in the market is the weakness of resistance. However, that is not what we are experiencing at all. BTC continues to find meaningful resistance at $24.500. I expect that even if BTC were to “breakout” into the $25K zone it would be somewhat of a “fakeout”. A push to even $26K would likely attract the “shorts”. I don’t see any meaningful signs of strength in the technicals, as well as the macro. On-chain data is also revealing that “retail” is largely to thank for this move. The whales have been somewhat cautious and methodical in their approach. They have been offloading BTC into the liquidity that is busy being provided by zealous retail investors.
Volume is always incredibly important and I must admit that yesterday’s pump had some really good volume. However, one has to discover the source of the volume. Even though the price remains above $23K the whales are more interested in selling rather than accumulating. “Dumb Money” is in accumulation mode, which ultimately points to a scenario where “Smart Money” is deleveraging. Something that market participants often forget is that a bear market is simply a bull market in reverse.
What This Really Means
Imagine a scenario where you chose to sell during the beginning stages of the previous bull market. In other words, you cashed out when BTC hit $35K. Rebalancing above $50K would have been better, and better yet, above $60K. Simply put, you don’t make your move in a market that has not matured yet. Similarly, you don’t buy too early in a bear market either, as the cycle needs to mature. When you are observing a bull market, it’s difficult to call a top. Many mistook the top early on and exited prematurely. The same principle applies to bear markets. This encourages me to hold out for my predictions (based on research and TA), which I expect to see around September.
Building A Short ETH Position
This has further encouraged me to begin building a short ETH position. This position was initiated above the $1700 level and continues to see allocation as the price rises. Ultimately, I will keep my entry price “pegged” to the current market price by strategic allocation. I expect a violent rejection for BTC at the current or even the $26K level. Once resistance exhausts the “shrimps”, the whales will short the vulnerability.
There really is not much to support a bullish move to $30K. However, anything is possible. That being said, whether it’s now or a little later, I am convinced that the fundamentals will trigger another collapse. I am preparing myself for this outcome. I am not disturbed by the current “noise”, as eventually, it fades. This is by no means investment advice. Enjoy the journey and thanks for visiting.