No Rest For The Wicked
Just as the market began to breathe a little easier after the Celsius, Voyager, and Three Arrows Capital collapse, we are faced with more potential pain. This is unfortunately how bear markets play out. The first sign of a “comeback” is always false. Thinking that a trend reversal can happen so easily without any meaningful resistance, is being a little too hopeful. If you think that the current tug of war taking place in the low 20K region is “lengthy” then this is perhaps your first bear market. Bear markets have a way of exhausting people’s patience. A way of inflicting “maximum pain” that eventually becomes unbearable. I must admit that in comparison to previous bear markets, the drop to $17.6K was almost enjoyable. It is very difficult to class that as “extreme pain”.
I posted some time back that I expect a correction in the S&P at the 4200 to 4300 level, which we are now currently in. The market loved the latest inflation number but only briefly. The S&P breached the 4200 level but has already dropped 1.88% at the time of writing. Coincidentally, we now also have Hodlnaut freezing withdrawals, as well as Hotbit temporarily halting services due to an investigation into a former employee. In relation to Hotbit, there is a chance that clarification could lead to the resumption of services. However, I have no idea as to how severe the “liquidity crisis” is for Hodlnaut. One also needs to consider that BlockFi would probably have gone the same route as Celsius if it were not for Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX. Fortunately, these are not particularly large entities but they are significant nonetheless.
Emotions At The Door
It’s very easy to watch altcoin prices tick higher and give into FOMO. I must remind you that BTC has surged as high as 100% in previous bear markets, only to return to lower levels. Looking at the current events and how the market appears to be “playing out”, my bottom prediction for BTC in the month of September appears to be looking more and more probable. A move to $26K would simply make for a stronger correction. There are no reversal confirmations as of yet, this is simply a move fueled by desire. The real estate collapse in China also seems to be avoiding the spotlight of the media. That is another potential shoe that could drop at any moment.
The S&P hits a critical point and subsequently suggests a correction. The DXY continues to push higher, which is generally bearish for Bitcoin. More medium-sized Crypto companies face liquidation or closure. This is all very speculative at this stage though. China is in the process of a massive real estate collapse, while the world gets excited about a reduction in inflation by 0.6%. I don’t know about you but the only thing that comes to mind is… “cool heads prevail”. Thanks for the visit and please remember that this content should not be consumed as financial advice. DYOR or consult a professional. All the best!