A Very Difficult Exercise
Trying to predict markets is often considered a fool’s errand. However, this is exactly how market participants generate profits and make money in financial markets. You may not realize it but every time you purchase a Crypto asset you are actually simultaneously making a prediction. You may however have a longer time horizon but it is still a prediction nonetheless. You are in essence predicting that the market or valuation of your asset will be higher at a predetermined time in the future. Trying to gain an understanding of where any particular market is headed is extremely difficult and becomes increasingly more difficult over shorter timelines. The best approach is to simply identify quality projects and begin stacking. Forget about the current price and focus on building your “coin allocation”. I know a lot of Crypto enthusiasts out there disagree and that’s fine.
Correctly Structured Opinion
An opinion is really cheap, we all have one! What separates a more accurate opinion from a random opinion is how it is established. I am of this opinion due to actually experiencing its efficiency and success rate. My past experience in this market has in essence formulated this view. At the end of the day, we are all sharing an opinion, viewpoint, or experience in a blog. Some tend to forget this reality. A blog is not Google or an authoritative point of reference. It is someone’s journey and is personally documented and presented to a reader base. Yes, there will be authoritative moments. Accuracy is also very important but it is still someone’s opinion. I have taken the opportunity to lay this out, as there are many voices in the Crypto space that seem to suffer from delusions of grandeur. Self-appointed to positions that only exist in their own realities.
Let’s just get real here for a moment and process this reality before we go on to address my views and interpretations of this current market. As a reader of market views and predictions, you need to filter what you read through this realistic and sober understanding.
Where Have We Come From?
Some months ago I shared an opinion that I expected the market to move sideways in a very restricted trading range. I referred to this range as “Bitcoin’s Box”. As it so happened, we proceeded to see this unfold. One of the most important indicators was not technical analysis or even on-chain analysis. This was simply a case of emotional intelligence. My reasoning was that whales would be looking to squeeze as much as possible out of this price zone. Once BTC had reached 70K it later went on to retest the 30K zone again. Finding support and bouncing up to 38K would attract any market participant that is looking to find a good buy zone. The support proved to attract large buyers and continued to be an area of interest. Even as I am writing Bitcoin is trading at $40K.
Where Are We Headed?
There were many expecting Bitcoin to rocket in this most recent pump. However, my personal view was further sideways action but in an extended range. The range I outlined in regards to the “Bitcoin Box” was $38K to $44K. This extended range saw me extend the upper resistance to as high as $50K. I stated that even if Bitcoin managed to hit $50K it would not mark the beginning of a significant upside. That being said, an extension to the downside should also be factored into an extension of the previous range. My expectation has been and continues to be in May, as outlined a few months ago. My expectation is a strong break to the upside towards the end of May. However, that could also be to the downside depending on what transpires closer to the time. At this stage, I am still expectant of a strong move north sometime in May.
Swimming With The Whales
I decided a number of months ago to begin accumulating certain altcoins. My February post, “Is It Time To Begin Thinking About Altcoins?” was published a week prior to altcoins bottoming and proved to be a great opportunity to begin accumulating altcoins. Many top-tier alts rocketed approximately 75% from this point. Past performance is not indicative of future performance and that applies to my own personal predictions of the market. Historically, my views over the past few months have been quite accurate but that does not guarantee the future. Let’s see how this plays out over the next month or two.