Confluence Whispered In My Ear
When trading markets, effective traders tend to seek out something known as confluence. This is very much like discovering which side of the market has the most favorable outcome. Multiple bullish indicators are usually indicative of a bullish move, while multiple bearish indicators are usually signs of an upcoming downtrend. Isolated trading ideas are typically inaccurate, which is why a good trader will set about to find as many indicators and scenarios to confirm his idea as possible. Looking at various technicals, charts and other data has helped me to formulate what I consider a rather probable outcome.
Where I See This Market Headed
It is quite important to note that these are merely my opinions and not investment advice. I do from time to time release “market predictions” but never under duress. If I see a lot of confirming data, backed by a strong conviction, I usually share my thoughts with my readers. I don’t provide a daily, weekly, or monthly market outlook. This would simply be from a point of delivering content and not based on any strong data and conviction. That being said, I do believe that the market will continue to trade in the range I predicted some months ago. Even if BTC drops below the $38K to $44K range, I expect it will be brief. I see BTC breaking out towards the end of May. This might take place a bit earlier but I suspect a strong move around this period.
Bitcoin could even break down at this point but I expect it to be a break to the upside. There is quite a lot of data that I am utilizing in order to find confluence and validation of this idea. One also needs to factor in the macro picture.
Anything Can Happen
The world is currently in chaos and while this is usually a climate that Bitcoin thrives in, we must remember that anything can happen. With such great uncertainty and extreme measures being exercised, markets are subsequently brought into a position of volatility. We experienced this in March of 2020 when Bitcoin dropped 50% in a single day. This however was not the beginning of a bear market but rather a relatively impressive bull market. Think about it! What bull market commences with a 50% drop? This would usually be indicative of the commencement of a bear market and yet it was completely the opposite. Doing our best to plot the road ahead is important, maybe not as important to hodlers but important to traders and those securing a living via Crypto.
So, my expectations are for BTC to continue trading within this range for the next two months or so. A break down to $30K is still a possibility but one I suspect would be very short-lived were it to take place. Ultimately, I see Bitcoin breaking out of the box by May. It is also important to remember that alts are likely to perform in a sideways Bitcoin market. The breakout of Solana was recently predicted in my latest post. We are yet to see how far it will go. A move above $100 has the potential to put SOL back at the $120 mark. Until next time!