Bitcoin & The Macro Picture

Bitcoin Idles On

Looking back into the Bitcoin price action reveals how the price has actually been stuck at the $39K zone for some time now. Even though there have been surges to the upside, BTC has been constantly pulled back into this lock zone. Strong resistance has been matched by equally strong support. This has ultimately created a box that Bitcoin seems unable to escape from. The $38K to $44K zone has been providing a great accumulation opportunity for long-term investors. Bitcoin seems to be overcoming multiple challenges, as it has done in the past. A new confidence is being established at these levels, while simultaneously creating future support.

The FED raising interest rates by 25 basis points had no negative effect on the market, largely due to the market having already priced in the event. In actual fact, I believe that the market was expecting more than was announced, which subsequently helped to give BTC a bit of a push!

The Macro Landscape

Nothing much is going to change when it comes to the macro outlook. In actual fact, it could and is most likely going to worsen over time. There is little that the FED can actually do, as they are literally caught in a catch 22 situation and can be likened to firemen throwing buckets of water at a burning building. The Russian drama in Ukraine is only getting started and we are yet to truly see inflation and commodity prices soar. The global and macro picture is that of chaos, disruption, and staggering production. Bitcoin ultimately thrives in chaos and as an anti-fragile asset actually becomes even more robust as time passes. Many are confused by the current price action but I wouldn’t interpret it as a negative sign at all.

Nothing Too Unusual

I expected a prolonged sideways period and made mention of it a few months back. In my mind, Bitcoin is in coiling up mode. Traditional investors are more familiar with constant, yet modest growth. They are unable to process the behavior of Bitcoin. This asset can do nothing for months, even years, and then suddenly increase by 100% within a month! People need to stop thinking and making comparisons relative to immediate & current price performance. This is not how Bitcoin operates because it moves according to its own rules and endeavors to mystify its path to the speculators. My personal thoughts and expectation are that BTC will experience a significant move in May. Events obviously have the power to trigger a move in an instant but I am realistically working and planning around this time frame.

I say this just after I have mentioned that Bitcoin is inherently secretive, which may sound strange. However, at the end of the day, speculating and working within timeframes is rather important if you truly wish to benefit from the next move. If the time frame is longer, then I have an extension. Unlike investors who buy and wait, I am deploying multiple strategies. My efficiency is largely due to me accomplishing certain goals and reaching certain points prior to a significant breakout. That being said, it could also breakdown, making it even more imperative that I reach these targets.

Personal Thoughts

Regardless of corrections and bearish seasons, I envision very strong growth going forward. Not even strong growth, very strong! Time is of the essence and cannot be experienced again from a position of hindsight. My personal conviction is to accomplish as much as possible. I have experienced and seen this dynamic many times before. People are distracted by the price and miss out on being positioned for the next wave. Price can be one of the worst indicators and has a way of deceiving the majority. Be careful of focusing too much on price and price action. However, if one is merely an investor, there is not much else one can do. Builders on the other hand are too busy racing against time to pay attention to price. True builders are busy, in the hope that they will be ready.

Final Thoughts

The moment will once again arrive and the majority will once again live in regret. Bitcoin is slowly hammering away at the dam wall and it will once again give way. Do your best to be ready as best as you can be because once it triggers, it moves fast! Thanks for the visit and keep building!

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