Time For An Update
I have not presented any technical analysis for a week or so, due to the fact that nothing had really changed. In many ways that is still the case. There are a number of traders out there who are becoming rather bullish with October only a few days away. October is statistically a bullish month, and with all the negativity of late, I believe many are expecting a bounce. I definitely would not rule that out, but unfortunately, I believe it will be yet another “bear market pump”. The events that have been so instrumental in inflicting pain are still likely to continue. Further rate hikes, accompanied by high inflation figures definitely aren’t bullish. Even a drop to 7%, or even 6% is not really a true accomplishment. Yes, it’s better than 8% or 9%, but it’s still not nearly enough. I have gone on record stating that I believe a bottom could be hit in September, perhaps October. A lot has transpired since I initially presented my thesis. One needs to remember that these levels and timeframes were marked out months ago, even before rate hikes commenced. I only made mention of the timeframe due to people asking. However, I don’t like to rely on it too much because it can be rather unreliable due to a number of reasons. I prefer levels or zones as more reliable indicators. A level can be met while the timeframe is adjusted, making a level a far more accurate metric.
Take A Look At This
Below is a screenshot of an inverted chart of BTC. In other words, everything is flipped. Study it closely! Look at the price levels, as well as the resistance at $12K. Remember that the chart is upside down, so in real terms, the support is at $12K.
Looking at this chart, it appears that the price action is about to hit a wall at $12K. Even though some may consider a drop to $10K, it would however be extremely short-lived, in my opinion. There is tremendous support for BTC at $12K to $13K. I expect this to be respected apart from a massive swan event. Remember, I mapped out this level months ago. What seemed absurd at the time is now the most probable outcome. There is hope that the price action doesn’t necessarily reach that zone. It could retrace earlier, but I would at least consider $15K.
However, it is also important to note that the $12K level is acting very much like a magnet at this stage. Even a bounce from this level could eventually see the force of this “magnetic attraction” eventually overpower a bullish move. Even as I am writing, BTC is up 8% in the past 24 hours, which is a pretty convincing bounce. The FED does not necessarily have to “pivot”, a “pause” would also ultimately create a surge in markets. Markets are however a little ahead of the curve at this stage, so I am not placing too much hope on this bounce. It does however provide a great trading opportunity.
Markets can rally in the short-term, and Bitcoin can even reach $25K again, but ultimately, I don’t think the bottom is in just yet. I will be looking to trade the current volatility while I await convincing “bottom indicators” to be printed in the charts. As always, this is not investment advice. Enjoy the Ride! See you next time!