No Surprises Here
Many are surprised to see BTC below $19K again and yet for some of us, this is exactly what we have been expecting. This is probably a good time to begin “analyzing” the voices you are paying attention to. Personally, I have taken mental note of many who have been consistently incorrect in terms of their predictions and outlooks throughout this bear market. Despite many having “good intentions”, it doesn’t really count for much in the world of markets. Markets are binary in nature, meaning that the only thing that counts is being right. You make money being right and lose money being wrong. Provided, there are ways to hedge yourself, including designing strategies that can still be somewhat effective in the face of challenges. I am not quite sure how people were able to envision upside, considering the macro environment. For many, I think it’s simply a case of a lack of knowledge. Understanding how markets operate and the rules that govern them is imperative. One simply cannot enter the market void of this knowledge and understanding.
There Is Some Form Of Solace
The fact that pretty much all markets have corrected sharply is at least evidence that the “disconnect” amongst market participants is being kept in check by the market. When what is expected to transpire (according to the rules of the market) does not occur, we are all reduced to gamblers. Making informed investment decisions gives you an edge, as the majority avoid extensive research. Let’s go back approximately two weeks to see how the price action has performed in view of the expected outcome.
In the article, “The Week Ahead – What Are The Charts Saying?”, I suggested the levels that I was expecting, especially in regard to the S&P. The screenshot below is where the S&P was trading at the time of writing.
I expected the S&P to drop a lot lower even though it had already lost 2% on the day. Let’s have a look.
There might be a bit of a bounce here and there but I would think that by the end of the week. or even next week, we are likely to hit the 3900 level.
The S&P is currently trading at the 3900 level at the time of writing, as seen in the screenshot below.
As mentioned in the abovementioned article, this is a very important level. What transpires over the next few days will be extremely important in terms of deciding the short-term direction. Will the macro environment permit a bounce at this level? This would create the formation of the right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulders pattern, which is a bullish pattern. We will have to keep a close eye over the next day or two to hopefully gain further insights from the market.
Thanks for the visit and as always, this is not investment advice. Happy trading!