Authority Comes Down To One Thing
A lot of people view “authority” according to numbers. In particular, followers, likes, and general engagement. I however view an authoritative voice via the only true metric, accuracy. Being well-connected, ranked, and “worshipped” won’t bring accuracy to your voice. No matter where I go I find there is always a form of this dynamic. I can revisit many “influencers” posts from three to four months ago and be entertained by a constantly changing narrative. What this actually reveals to the more knowledgeable reader is that this is evidence of someone “following the market”. It’s actually become extremely amusing to watch so many adjust their stories to meet the market. Yes, I understand that as price action matures and events unfold, there is adjustment. However, a well-informed projection has factored in many of what is to be expected in a bearish phase. Long-term charting is also observed, and key levels of support and resistance over many years are also observed and respected. The macro environment is also factored into the thesis. As I have mentioned, this has been one of the largest points of failure among Crypto investors. Tremendous Ignorance exists in regard to “higher level” indicators that exist outside of Crypto.
Acknowledgment Is Not Authority
People seek acknowledgment and therefore give credit to fame instead of accuracy. I don’t expect this to ever change. That is why I have even personally admitted that I don’t ever envision an extensive reader base. I could list numerous points in the market where my calls were disregarded and later proven to be accurate. Perhaps in a bull market, it’s a little different, as my bias will be bullish. However, if I were to put out what people want to hear there would be little accuracy and it wouldn’t be beneficial. Sometimes you have to take on the responsibility others refuse to. After all, it’s easy to come out guns blazing with bullish “stories” originating from a silver-tongued charlatan. The machinations of many influencers are often undetected due to their “positive” viewpoint.
Is It Time?
Looking back on my own analysis reveals that I had expected a bottom to strike for Crypto in September to November. My initial target of $18K was fairly accurate. However, the price action and events that followed motivated me to consider that my possible worse-case target of $12K to $13K was now quite probable. Once again, this was met with much skepticism and possibly still is. Many are now bearish because they have finally been convinced but now you have to remember what I said earlier. There comes a point where you simply cannot promote a bullish thesis. What this then results in is many influencers becoming bearish and you have the same dynamic in reverse. Now there is the chance that many are overly bearish. It’s very difficult to begin making decisive moves regarding the start of a possible trend reversal due to the macro backdrop. There is so much I need to expound upon but a blog post simply won’t be able to do it justice. This is why one should never place too much weight on a single publication.
Anyone publishing analysis will be presenting a thesis over multiple publications and in order to accurately interpret the content, one needs to peruse earlier publications and gain a more comprehensive view. Confluence is always an essential aspect of effective trading. I believe we are entering a time that will be a good opportunity for accumulation. However, I am still awaiting further downside. The macro picture is very tricky at the moment and I am not yet convinced. I will keep readers updated. However, my viewpoints should never be considered investment advice. Thanks for the visit, see you next time!