You Missed It
Regular readers will be aware of my stances, regarding market cycles, and the particular periodic “moments” within these structural patterns. Despite a lot of initial skepticism, my bearish target (given very early) in 2022 was pretty damn close. Especially, when measured contextually from the peak. As I stated in 2022, it was the best time to trade the market. Why? Well, pretty much every pump was destined to be a bear market rally.
In other words, a bull trap… or dead cat bounce. This is exactly what happened. My suggestion was to sell pumps and buy back lower. Outside of that particular strategy, came yet another great trading opportunity in the form of a ranging market. A ranging market is great to trade, for the simple reason that any deviation from the range is likely to be short-lived. Essentially, 2022 and 2023 was the time to be trading this market.
This is not the time to be focusing on trading, in my opinion. Yes, I am currently trading. However, I am not looking to trade with profitable altcoin positions, for the simple reason that they will simply become a lot more profitable over the next two years. Taking advantage of the dumps, as a buying opportunity makes a lot more sense. Short-term price targets in a bull market can appear profitable.
Unfortunately, when you look back in hindsight, they appear incredibly near sited, ultimately, foolish. Bull markets are maximized by long-term strategies. Unless you are shorting a bear market, your time horizons are significantly shorter. It all comes down to doing the right thing at the right time. If we see a final capitulation event, many will come with the “you were wrong” stance.
However, markets operate on probabilities, and if you use that idea as the predominant idea driving your thesis, chances are, you will be left behind. Something similar to Capo on Twitter/X. He had a few good calls last year. However, he’s completely missed the bus. Even if there is another capitulation event, it will be extremely brief, and chances are, many will miss out on utilizing it as an advantageous event.
We Build…
From here, we build, with the future in mind. Yes, set aside an allocation for trading. However, don’t get caught up in the moment. Choosing to try and time the market with your HODL bags can become frustrating, and even, unprofitable. It’s important to remember that resistance levels are often not respected in a bull market, and even if they are, it’s often momentary… ultimately leading to further upside.
As we have discussed before, there are still very significant corrections in a bull market. However, it’s extremely difficult to try and spot them. It’s better to approach the market with more of a reactionary approach. Every big move has a countermove, and choosing such an approach is a lot safer. At least this is what I have found to be true. At the end of the day, projects are not going to be topping out now, regardless of how high they have rallied.
When you look back in 2025, or even 2024, you will see what I am saying. These current gains that appear to be monstrous will ultimately be dwarfed, in time. This is of course, if the world is not thrown into some long-lived chaos. As a trader, you align with probabilities… not possibilities. This is where Capo has missed it. He is siding with possibility and not probability. There’s an enormous difference.
Historically, altcoins experience their most significant gains in the final stages of a bull market. This generally tends to be in the final three or four months. Furthermore, altcoins tend to perform long after Bitcoin tops out. This is usually weeks and provides a lot of cream for altcoin investors who manage to time this move correctly. More risk-averse investors can of course opt out earlier.
Final Thoughts
Financial markets have a way of rewarding those who choose to have a disciplined and structured approach. Having a predefined strategy is also a form of comfort. If you are continuously concerned about exiting the market at opportune times, it can become a little bit of a drain, and even, result in a long-term loss in profitability. As always these are my thoughts, and not investment advice. See You next time!
Sapphire Crypto 