Keeping track of analysis and its accuracy, or lack thereof is of vital importance when it comes to honing your efficiency as a trader. Simply consuming analysis and never returning to determine its accuracy is a fool’s errand. This is why there is so much garbage on Crypto Twitter. The underlying problem here is more the audience than the influencers.
If consumers of this content actually bothered to determine how accurate the data was, much of the problem would be solved. I am not going to follow someone who consistently puts out an analysis that never amounts to anything. Clearly, I stand very much alone in that aspect of common sense. Anyway, let’s look at how my analysis has been performing since May.
On the 13th of May, I published, “My Strategic Approach To The Current Crypto Market”. This is where I introduced my readers to a giant falling wedge on the weekly chart. Here, I mentioned a worst-case target of about $12K. There was, however, a glimmer of hope.
The falling wedge plotted out in blue, reveals a very scary scenario for Bitcoin. I will say that in these particular pattern formations the breakout often occurs earlier and does not necessarily imply that BTC has to hit the $12K level.
I have seen a number of influencers beginning to reference this wedge. The only problem is it’s 7 months late. In other words, useless, at this point. Along with this wedge, I plotted out a channel that I saw this bear market respecting. This was where I experienced the most ridicule. However, looking at my chart from 7 months ago, compared to today reveals a very interesting outcome.
Pictured below is my initial chart from May. Directly below is a current chart displaying how the price action has respected my analysis. There was a brief break below, which quickly re-entered the channel. This is typical price action behavior.
As you can see we are almost there. I am looking for a final break below $15K, and at that stage would be satisfied. At that point, I would shift from a bearish outlook to one of accumulation. Recently, we had two brief breaks below $16K. I gave a heads-up approximately an hour prior to each collapse.
Taking a look at my last post, I am expecting another move south. The first half has played out in that Bitcoin has broken the $17K level.
There is a lot of hope out there in regard to a “Christmas Pump”. Personally, I think that if BTC were able to break $18K, it would likely suffer a heavy correction at that point. We will have to wait and see how it plays out. The big mistake that many tend to make in a scenario like this is to consider that the downward momentum is over.
The Final Leg
This looks to be the final leg of this bear market. When I say that I am referring to establishing a reasonable bottom. I don’t classify market conditions as many others tend to, but that’s something for another day. Revisiting the past 7 months reveals how many were scrambling… buying at $25K, then buying at $21K, only to suffer further losses. It’s very important to step back and gain as much clarity as possible. Bear markets take time to unfold.
There is at least some solace in the fact that in terms of price, the majority of the pain has been absorbed. A final capitulation event that would eradicate the current gains, especially within the altcoin market, would make for a very disappointing outcome. This is usually the type of scenario and disappointment that accompanies maximum pain.
After more than a year of downward momentum, just as investors are finding new hope, it all collapses… AGAIN! That sounds like a bottom…