Why Bitcoin Is Not Moving As Expected: Market Trends And Key Insights
Ok, it’s safe to say that 2021 didn’t close as many of us expected. It was a textbook example of an anticlimax, which, as expected, left many uninterested. During 2021, I had quite a few people approach me for help with crypto. I am sure you guessed it; they are now very quiet. Let’s be honest: to be committed to this market, you need a very strong conviction, and that can only come from a foundation of knowledge and understanding. How else can you be confident in your conviction? There is a big difference between expectation and conviction.
Expectancy is often based on the consensus, which is exactly why, in the heat of a bull market, everyone and his uncle is jumping on board. However, expectancy is based solely on emotion. On the other hand, a conviction is based on something more substantial. Year after year of accumulating knowledge and watching the adoption and the incorporation of crypto into key parts of the global economy will inevitably create conviction. This is the most significant differentiation between the committed cryptopreneur and a newcomer. Even if those who lack conviction stick it out, they will eventually be rewarded.
The only regret they will have in hindsight is that they didn’t remain active while they waited. However, has the strength of conviction within the crypto community become so strong that it rejects reality? Strength can become a weakness when overextended. Is this the case for crypto right now? When you look at the “story of Bitcoin” and how it is unfolding, the long-term view is only bullish. With that in mind, how much importance should then be placed on the current market activity?
Bitcoin Price Action Today: Trends, Key Levels, And Market Analysis
In crypto markets, prices are often manipulated in the short term. The reason is that the longer term tends to return the price to a more accurate fair market value. Looking at the double top and the head-and-shoulders pattern currently evident on the BTC chart, it looks quite bleak. However, BTC has been hanging around the neckline for quite some time now. Typically, upon reaching the neckline, the price gives way. Even if it is a fakeout and later bounces back.
Strangely, the price has been very stable at a level that usually prompts a reaction. In essence, the lack of a response in this case reflects an underlying bullish bias. The pattern is bearish, the breaking point has arrived, and yet the price does not break down. I posted some weeks ago, possibly months ago, that I expected whales to manipulate the low- to mid-$40K range for as long as they could.
Strange Support At $40K
When you consider what I just said about the price not breaking down at the neckline, it seems rather eerie. Have you stopped to consider that those who suppress the price are also supporting it? Think about it: picking up an asset at a bargain price doesn’t help much if it collapses entirely. This is an important dynamic to be aware of.
Factor in all the bullish breakthroughs and adoption in recent months, and you will conclude that the market is currently not accurately valued. Yes, the price could still break down and trigger a further dump if enough traders rely on technical analysis. However, crypto is unlike other markets because it has another metric as powerful as TA: on-chain analysis.
The Future Of The Crypto Community: Trends, Challenges, And Opportunities Explained
Well, yes, many are perhaps just refusing any narrative that contradicts them, making bank; that much is obvious. However, the truly informed and knowledgeable may not be shifting bearish due to a lack of confluence. This is even more important than TA, as TA is merely a single metric. Confluence gathers multiple indicators and data points that point to a similar potential outcome. The current volume is also unimpressive, and the last price moves require volume.
As a whole, it would appear that to shift bearish right now would be premature. It would also mean that a trading position or opinion has been formed without much confluence. With that in mind, you may begin to think that it is actually the bears that are in denial and not the bulls. The most logical outcome here is an extended period of flat price action, most likely in the $38K to $ 45 K range.
Significant volume could always still come in and ultimately destroy what appears to be a carefully constructed accumulation zone. This could go in favor of the bears as well as the bulls; it all depends on what the volume is doing.
Think This Market Is Different? It’s Not – Here’s Why History Keeps Repeating
This has been happening for decades in traditional markets; there is no free market. One may experience a market that is somewhat more able to operate on a more natural flow of supply and demand. These are, however, the markets that nobody is particularly interested in. Once an asset has reached this stage, you can expect this type of activity. It’s almost a guarantee!
Conclusion
For the most part, I do not think the crypto community is in a state of self-deception or denial. However, if BTC were to break below $38K, it would be reasonable to assume that the above-mentioned patterns would likely proceed towards their specified targets. This would be a great opportunity to accumulate, and OGs know exactly what to do, despite the mental battle. Buying my own blood in the crash of March 2020 was one of the most powerful moves I have made in crypto.
It is, however, an extremely difficult move for most people. There has to be a lot of conviction present in your decisions. After all, after severe drops, most adopt a mindset that prices will never recover. This is usually the result of fear. However, one must conquer fear to succeed in any financial market. Thanks for the visit, and here’s hoping the road ahead isn’t too painful! See you soon!
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