What Is Bitcoin’s Trajectory?
It’s very easy to become disillusioned regarding Bitcoin’s trajectory, or at best confused, when volatility strikes. However, zooming out reveals that Bitcoin is very clearly trending higher over time; however, all assets and all markets take three steps forward, two steps back. In Bitcoin’s case, it’s more like three steps forward, one step back. It is illogical to think that Bitcoin can continue higher without retracements.
I believe that Bitcoin will always adhere to the 4-year cycle, at least to some extent. It will soften over time until it is barely noticeable. Altcoins, however, are not adhering to the 4-year cycle as they once did. Regarding altcoins, the 4-year cycle has broken down. Most altcoins are below the levels seen in the 2022 bear market, and have been for some time. Bitcoin has been the altcoin of 2024 and 2025.
Searching For The Sweet Spot In Crypto Investing
I went on record some time ago with my expectations for Bitcoin during the next bear market. Well, the next bear market is here, and we will soon see how it plays out. I said I expected a 50% to 60% retracement, with the possibility of a brief dip into the high end of the $40K zone. I still think this is highly probable. Bitcoin is currently nearing another cascading dump, in my opinion. I have highlighted what I consider a decent buy zone on the graph below.
I saw the recent pump as a typical bear market rally, also known as a bear trap. Hindsight has proven it as such. Bitcoin is currently trading at $70K and was as low as $68K over the weekend. I expect the Bitcoin price to trend lower over the next few months. I then expect a fair amount of sideways chop before edging higher and eventually moving on to higher highs, culminating in a new all-time high.
Unlike other assets, Bitcoin is programmed to reach higher highs continuously. It might take some time, but it is an eventual end. Bitcoin is pre-programmed with smart money concepts and will continue to perform well over the longer term. Because I expect Bitcoin to correct further, I am holding off on altcoin purchases and prefer to wait for significant discounts. In my opinion, Bitcoin will drop to at least $50K.
Mid-year will probably be a good time to begin strong accumulation. If Bitcoin wicks down to the $50K level, I would, however, take advantage of it, provided altcoin prices are in the zone I am waiting for. Altcoins can even bleed when Bitcoin is indecisive. Bitcoin doesn’t have to be moving lower for altcoins to drop. The altcoin market has become very rebellious regarding the rules it once followed.
That’s why I say, regarding altcoins, the 4-year cycle is no longer relevant. Perhaps it plays along next time around. I think it is also due to the market undergoing a bit of pruning. All the dead branches are being cut away. However, with pruning, even the healthy branches are cut down. The only difference is that they grow back and are even more fruitful than before.
Final Thoughts
In short, I expect Bitcoin to trend lower; however, there will be pumps along the way. The important thing is not to be distracted or eventually fooled by these bear-market rallies. They can be very dangerous because whales sell high volumes into these pumps, ultimately triggering cascading events. Strong corrections liquidate traders, which compounds into a cascading event. Anyway, enjoy the ride. See you next time!
Sapphire Crypto 