The New Year Is Almost Upon Us
Well, it’s been a crazy year. We have seen and experienced so many financial disasters. Unfortunately, these events were outside of our control. Exercising good risk management and diversification is the only way you escaped the carnage. For many, it has however been somewhat of a nightmare. If you are still here, chances are, it’s not your first time!
As we move into the new year, it’s important to find and establish your pace. It’s going to be a long year. The traditional mindset identifies a bottom as the beginning of a bull market. I don’t share that ideology. I see most of 2023 as a period of continued accumulation. In such a scenario the bear is exhausted, and the bull is still asleep. It’s a prolonged “shift change” that continues to shake out market participants.
Overly ambitious market participants often succumb to the “inactivity” of this period. Sure, we may see $30K a lot sooner than many may think, but that’s not really anything in real terms. When prices have been suppressed for so long, investors exaggerate any move up. Remember, $30K is almost 60% from the all-time high. Nothing to write home about.
Strategy & Application
Regular readers will know that I mapped out my approach for this bear market according to the analysis that I did approximately eight months ago. I have held to that throughout 2022 and have not adjusted or deviated from my bottom prediction since it was first published back in May. Developing and appropriating strategies within my expectations (based on data and research) of future market movements has protected me during this time.
What this really means is that my actions today were decided almost a year ago. They are not impulsive but rather dedicated, predetermined, and disciplined. This is how you survive difficult seasons. Running around buying every dip is a fool’s errand. Living through market cycles gives you a deeper understanding and helps to formulate an accurate perspective.
I have already planned my approach for 2023 and will look to begin pacing myself for the marathon ahead. Unfortunately, I had a bit of a “disruption” recently. Yes, I happened to contract covid. I managed to keep up with my usual schedule during the first few days but then got “floored” a few days before Christmas. I seem to be pretty much recovered now, so am glad to get back to trading and other endeavors.
Fortunately, I didn’t miss much in trading terms, as the market has been eerily flat. This is usually the quiet before the storm. Volatility is not far off. Having a plan that is adhered to via daily disciplines and activities is vital for survival. Map your journey, find your pace, and begin moving toward the next stop in the journey.
See you in the next one!