Ever since Bitcoin dropped below $30K, many have been calling for the bottom. It was $25K, then $22K. This was followed by the “it will never drop below $20K” narrative. Then we had the crowd at $17.5K, adamantly claiming that it was basically “impossible” for BTC to drop below this level. Well, we have seen $15.4K, and chances are, there is more to come.
This has basically taken approximately 8 months to play out. That’s 8 months of avoiding the noise and fear-mongering of inexperienced “traders”. How many times have I not had to exit these echo chambers? If you are not firmly convinced of your stance, these voices will cause you to act prematurely. Perhaps, you have forgotten the previous bear markets, or perhaps, you were not around.
Maximum pain is a point of “exhaustion”. A “place” where it becomes unbearable, a place so soul-destroying that you just want to walk away. Many have already done just that, they are out, simply not interested. They have moved on and no longer give Crypto a second thought. Ironically, many of these individuals will return at the height of the next bull market.
They will repeat the same fundamental mistakes because they have not gone through the entire process of a bear market. In essence, their understanding and interpretations are exactly the same. This basically guarantees a similar outcome, as they will repeat the same behavior, which is determined by their understanding, which remains unchanged.
Was it Einstein who said that repeating a certain behavior in the hope of a different outcome is actually insanity? I think it was. In other words, if your behavior is the same, so too will be the outcome. Since behaviors are determined by perceptions and mindsets, you can understand why these market participants are destined to get REKT, yet again.
Premature Or Late?
The idea of “missing out” doesn’t even make any mathematical sense. Let’s consider for a moment that $15.4K was the bottom (not saying it is) and the market is about to edge higher. Even entering at $17K puts you way ahead of those who bought above $20K, and even $17,5K. Furthermore, you will immediately be moving into profit, unlike those who succumbed to distractions and noise.
This is a basic mathematical principle, and yet evades the majority of Crypto investors. I have been trading financial markets for approximately 15 years and have seen how one particular virtue continues to be respected by the market. The rare art of disciplined patience is one of the most important attributes of a successful trader, or investor.
Impatience is a dangerous vice and is often the root cause of many great losses. Impatience is directly linked to greed. The two are brothers. Wherever you find impatience, you are likely to find greed. The avoidance of this “dangerous duo” is an important decision when trading.
Don’t Lose Focus
I believe we are very close to finding, at least, a local bottom for BTC. Who knows what 2023 has in store? Even if we move up considerably over the coming months, 2023 could unleash another swan event that could see Bitcoin revisit previous lows. Unfortunately, the macro picture is still extremely relevant, at this stage.
It’s very much one step at a time, for now. Don’t become careless in the event of bullish price action. In the same light, remain in an attitude that can identify opportunity in the event of unexpected downside. Remaining level-headed is extremely important when dealing with financial markets and instruments. All the best, see you next time!