Before I get into this latest edition, I want to establish a few crucial aspects. Firstly, there is no reality where a permabull or permabear exists. Absolutely every single asset on this planet goes up and down in value. Yes, I believe Crypto holds enormous potential over the long term and will ultimately be a complete game changer. That however does not exclude extremely harsh bearish seasons. You will note that permabulls are usually heavily invested or leveraged, always pushing their story. There is a constant “assault” of a bullish case. The sun rises, and the sun sets. There is no such thing as a permaday. The laws of nature do not allow it. In a similar way, the rules of the market do not allow ongoing bullish or bearish price action.
The gold bugs are a good example of this, not being able to move in and out of gold ownership at the appropriate time. If you bought gold ten years ago you lost money. Imagine not realizing a return after 10 years? This is where a conviction can become an obstacle if it is not founded on data but merely a conviction of “desire”.
The Lost Decade
Gold has ultimately experienced a lost decade due to the following. Some time back, I published an article in regards to gold and its “purpose” as a store of value vs the Bitcoin digital gold narrative. I also revealed in a previous article that gold has not appreciated in price over a ten-year period. Why then do I say that it has lost value? Due to the current inflation crisis, people will now be able to appreciate what I have been saying but were perhaps hindered in the past due to a miscalculated understanding of the impact of inflation. Factor in “healthy” inflation over ten years and you will very quickly begin to understand. Let’s look at a simple example of how over the long-term permabulls have ultimately shot themselves in the foot.
Let’s say you owned property 10 years ago and decided to sell the property due to being relocated into a work position that provided free accommodation. You decide to invest in gold because it is a store of value. Go and have a look at how the price of property has increased over the past ten years. Try using the dollar value you received for your property ten years ago to buy the same property today. It’s just not going to happen. The loss is in essence, massive! This is not only an applicable argument to use in the case of property. Absolutely everything is a lot more expensive than it was 10 years ago.
Being Perma Anything Is Foolish
I still maintain an extremely bullish case for Crypto. Heck, I am busy with it all day, every day. That doesn’t mean that I ignore cycle trends and post ongoing publications that the price is going higher. I took profits in 2021 and shared it publicly at the time. I also shifted to an extremely bearish stance when BTC was above $30K. Here too, I moved more alts into USD and shared it publicly. I have consistently acted in a manner contrary to what many would have liked. However, I have benefited from my decisions and that’s all that counts. This is why the majority of Crypto Twitter is absolute garbage. As the price continued to plummet over the past months, so did the frequency of the ever-bullish tweets. It’s unbelievable, to say the least.
Anyone who is Perma anything is compromised and unable to be objective. Beware of anyone whose narrative never factors in the negative aspects. Nobody gets it right all of the time but those endeavoring to be as objective and data-driven as possible are more likely to be trusted, in my opinion. By the way, my outlook remains bearish at this stage. Thanks for the visit!