Time To Adjust Your Approach
Many new investors initially enticed by explosive Crypto Gains have since discovered that this “Crypto Thing” is not as easy as it looks. It’s like anything. A skilled sportsman can make moves appear effortless which would leave most of us feeling like a contortionist. This is unfortunately the greatest misconception: That anyone can do it, and there is no skill involved, whatsoever. False!
Operating within any financial market in order to extract profit requires knowledge, skill, and experience. This also requires time, which by default often sends the “fly by nights” off in a hurry. This is where Hive creates the perfect opportunity for both newcomers, and even the more experienced. Time and contribution have value in the new economy.
Once this thought adjustment takes place, average people begin to understand that they can leverage this as a way to build a Crypto portfolio without the risk of loss. Risk Is removed because investment capital is not required. Sure, you can choose to invest and give yourself a head start, but it’s not a requirement. Building a portfolio of Crypto assets with zero cost!
Hive is inherently an economy. Activity and productivity on the blockchain create and extract value simultaneously. A blockchain-based economic construct that is open to anyone with an internet connection. Isn’t this the perfect introduction to Crypto and the blockchain? Noobs should begin their journey with Hive. A zero-cost introduction to Crypto with a built-in portfolio that is only limited by the account owner.
This is the perfect defense against a mauling bear market. I believe that creating a Hive account is probably the best advice anyone could offer a noob. No initial investment, and no chance of degen losses. This is the ultimate way to get started. However, what many tend to do is begin throwing money at random altcoins and then come crying when things don’t go their way.
Alexander the Great offers some food for thought when it comes to victory and success:
The end and object of conquest is to avoid doing the same thing as the conquered.
How you approach an endeavor is crucial to whether you succeed or not. Hive removes many of the risks involved and positions you favorably in relation to success. However, nothing is going to happen outside of your own personal effort and commitment.
Can’t Escape The Laws That Govern
No matter what you are doing, success will always require a certain level of persistence and dedication. The “Fairytale Crypto Dream” needs to come to an end now. It’s going to cost you something. However, with Hive, money is removed from the list. You can enter the Crypto space, begin accumulating and leave your wallet out of the equation. It’s an unparalleled opportunity, in my opinion.
That being said, value extracts value in the Hive dynamic. Providing value to the blockchain catches the attention of the value within the blockchain, ultimately exchanging “token value” for the value you bring to the ecosystem. All value grows over time, and that’s how it is on Hive. Slow and steady wins the race.
There is no better time to get busy on Hive! Building your stake now will benefit you greatly in the years to come. Not everyone has an investor mindset, but you have to appreciate the long game if you are going to make it count! Hive offers the perfect opportunity for those who feel as if they have lost too much to begin investing in Crypto again. Perhaps it’s time to begin building your presence on Hive.
Disappointment & Resistance
It’s no secret that investor confidence in the Crypto sector has taken a heavy knock over the past few months. It seems as if every shoe to drop has been of greater consequence than the one before. I think many new investors managed to adjust their outlook after the first few casualties. However, for many, it’s now a wait-and-see game. Once bitten twice shy, noobs are now extremely cautious. Studying on-chain data over the past few months reveals how whales have been consistently selling into the multiple retail-inspired pumps we have seen.
Inexperienced traders tend to be only concerned with price action. They ignore volume and other indicators. This includes who’s buying and who’s selling. Personally, I am not concerned with the behavior of shrimps. These are average people just trying to accumulate as much Bitcoin as possible. Generally, they are ignorant of market dynamics. What they do is inconsequential in terms of “established” moves. Whales bring volume to the table and volume creates moves that hold.
Every bear market rally appears to be getting weaker as time passes. Let’s take a look. In the chart below, I have highlighted the multiple bull traps we have seen during the course of this bear market.
The current move from the local bottom cannot even be considered a pump, it’s basically floating sideways. The point I am making is that the shrimps are losing stamina. The whales are just wearing them out slowly but surely. Eventually, they will surrender.
Exhaustion will simultaneously be accompanied by a meaty move to the downside. In October, I drew readers’ attention to the commencement of low volatility, similar to that seen during the final capitulation of the 2018 bear market.
When looking at the charts, you will also be able to note that the range has become compressed. Bitcoin has been trading in a tight range for a few months now, and I believe is moments away from a significant move.
Why do market cycles often appear so similar in nature? Because people don’t change, they repeat the same behavior over and over again. How many of you promised yourself that you would sell the top of this past bull market, so as to not repeat the mistakes of the past? How did that turn out?
Even when you want to behave differently, you find yourself stuck in habitual behavior. So, what do you think becomes of the majority of the market, who were not here before and are not even trying to adjust past behavior? This is why the validation of others means very little to the knowledgeable… their portfolio value is the only validation that counts. This is also why I try to encourage the study of technicals, data, and charts. The only way you adjust behavior is to establish a clearly defined strategy that is always executed without compromise.
This is the key difference, and what separates traders from “traders”. Strong disciplines and rules dominate a successful trader’s actions. Either continue flip-flopping on your emotions or dive into the data and begin learning and studying. Continue ignoring technical analysis and keep repeating the same mistakes, simple. This requires work, which is actually the real reason many choose to overlook it. Every development and point of growth begins with honest reflection.
I am simply looking for trading opportunities while I wait for a final capitulation event. Many argue that there is no catalyst to warrant another heavy drop. Really, BTC collapsed 50% in 2018 without any catalyst. Once retailers are worn out, they have no choice. Ever been to the gym and pushed really hard? Muscle failure happens despite your mental focus and determination.
The Learning Never Ends
If you endeavor to continue learning and growing, you have to realize that your current understanding is limited. It may well be extremely thorough and in-depth but that definitely doesn’t imply that it is complete. I don’t actually believe in an “arrival”. No matter how good you are at your particular skill, there is always room for improvement.
Remaining teachable and humble is vital for development and progress of any kind, and it’s no different in the Crypto world. I know that many investors were not keen on my “neverending bearish” outlook. Avoiding the bear market rallies (bull traps) was an important move in maintaining and preserving capital. Amazing buying opportunities are just around the corner.
However, the preservation of capital is only one of the wisdoms behind this patient approach. Things are seldom one-dimensional. I have learned over the years that multi-faceted strategies are the most effective. Why? Because they factor in multiple outcomes, scenarios, and dynamics.
There’s More To It
Preserving capital in a bear market is key. It’s the first course of action. However, it doesn’t end there. Another very important reason to avoid a premature entry is “survival”. You have to allow a bear market to take its course. This will inevitably see the demise of many projects. It is important to note that the casualty cases of this particular bear market have all been what many would have considered strong projects.
Not that long ago Alex Mashinsky was a “hero”, Do Kwon was a “genius”, and SBF was a talented “white knight”. What makes your particular project of choice untouchable? Investors who scaled out into cash would have missed the carnage by default. This is very important to understand and appropriate.
Not only are you protecting your capital but you are delaying entry until the dust settles. You may think it doesn’t matter if the price goes lower, but that’s just the best-case scenario. What if the project doesn’t survive? Few consider this reality. However, Solana and others might be “getting through” to a few “stiff necks”. Choosing not to repeat previous mistakes is imperative to advancing as an investor or trader.
It’s always good to have other interests, both within the Crypto world and externally. The market will often provide seasons that require abstinence. Refusing to adhere to these seasonal periods often results in a loss. Self-control needs to be appropriated from a position of patience. Good trading decisions come from a place of emptiness.
A busy and erratic lifestyle is not conducive to making good trading decisions. Patience, emptiness, and self-control work together in gaining an accurate and sound perspective. It is from such a position that truly successful traders make their moves. Nobody ever lost money missing a bottom. On the other hand over zealous investors often get wiped out entering a collapsing market prematurely.
Survival is not going to be enough either. Is your project up for 2023 and able to regain new highs in time? It is perhaps too early to say, which is why restraint and modest movements are often the best approaches. Once again, risk management is an essential part of this process.
It is definitely going to be interesting to see which projects eventually reach new highs and go on to convince the market of their value and resilience. The wise survive. Both FTX and Solana were behemoths. Power means very little in the hands of a fool. A wise approach will see the “small guy” survive, while the powerful are often drunk on their own delusions of grandeur, and as a result, make foolish decisions.
Solana fans must be extremely disappointed as the FTX debacle continues to haunt and decay a once flourishing ecosystem. Next to ETH, Solana was primed for greatness and mass adoption. It’s no secret that Sam Bankman-Fried’s endorsement and investment in Solana helped propel the blockchain into the Top 10.
However, that is no longer the reality. SOL has been on a steady collapse and is about to fall out of the Top 20. Solana is a classic case of collateral damage and reveals exactly how destructive centralization can be. It is important to note that this is all unfolding due to “association” and a lack of decentralization. There are pros and cons to everything.
Relying on strong backing via VCs and other heavy hitters is great until something goes wrong. A more decentralized distribution of SOL would have rendered FTX’s collapse a lot less catastrophic. Sadly, this is not the case. FTX acquired a large portion of Solana’s circulating supply, ultimately, holding the chain captive.
How far Solana continues to fall is anyone’s guess. My first expectation is between $5 and $7. However, depending on how badly the development on the chain continues to deteriorate, a dollar is also realistic. Fortunately, this collapse hasn’t affected me. I picked up my first SOL under a dollar and have been short for much of this collapse.
I am still short. The past 24 hours have really put some amazing distance between my entry and the current price. I usually adjust stop losses once a position is in profit. This ensures that an unexpected move contrary to my position cannot steal my gains or plunge me into a loss. Trading 10X can do that very quickly, especially in Crypto.
Ethereum Is Worse
The centralization of Solana has been its downfall, where once it was actually its glory. However, Ethereum is now a lot more centralized than Solana. As I have mentioned, my exposure to ETH from here on will be minimal. I managed a decent buy during the covid crash at approximately $100, so I am pleased with my time in Ethereum.
As I have also mentioned, I exited the majority of my ETH between $4500 and $3500. I am not that concerned about the current layer 1 blockchains. I am choosing to watch from the sidelines. Very modest accumulation however continues for Cardano and a few others. Blockchains like Hive, Ravencoin, and other under-the-radar projects are gaining my attention.
Ethereum is much like Bitcoin now, the real gains have been realized. A lot of investors talk about when Ethereum will hit $10K. That’s not even a 10X. I enjoyed 35X to 45X on ETH during the last bull market. I am not going to get that again. So, I am looking elsewhere.
There is a lot to take away from the Solana collapse. It is equally important to meditate and consider scenarios and situations. There are too many hot-headed investors in this space. Take a step back, relax, and consider your next steps from here.
This also applies to trading. Overtrading is a very real problem for many traders. A calm and thoughtful approach gives you an unparalleled advantage. Until the next one, stay the course!
Not A New Idea
The idea of tokenization has been around for some time and began to garner serious attention back in 2016 and 2017. However, the bear market that followed put an incredible damper on the idea, especially since it was a bear market described as the “ICO Bubble”. The introduction of DeFi served only to further detract attention from this idea. The arrival of NFTs was however able to steal back the limelight, providing tokenization with some much-needed awareness.
The tokenization of real-world assets has been steadily increasing over the past few years. Obviously, the art market has been key in this development. Real estate, gold, and other collectibles have also been part of this initial shift. Tokenization moves beyond ownership and into “proof”. It is also a way to verify and confirm in an immutable manner. In my opinion, tokenization is just getting started. One of the blockchains that support the tokenization of real-world assets is Ravencoin.
Although Ravencoin recently experienced a fair amount of exposure due to Ethereum’s shift to POS, it has a tendency to float beneath the radar. So much attention is given to ETH and others. However, there are a few reasons that command my respect when it comes to Ravencoin. You also need to wonder how Ethereum has managed to capture so much attention over the years.
No ICO & No Premine
Ravencoin is almost unique in that there was no ICO and no premine. Unlike ETH, which had both, Ravencoin has an “integral authority” due to actually holding a higher moral ground. Ravencoin is similar to Bitcoin in that it is just code. Ravencoin mirrors the same “qualities” that disqualify Bitcoin from being classed as a security. This ongoing “security” debacle is yet to explode… and it’s coming!
Ethereum never had the best of conceptions. However, recent “advancements” have tainted it somewhat, in my opinion. Heavy and concentrated centralization in a project such as Ethereum is definitely not a good thing. Ravencoin has no treasury, executives, or leaders. Much is often said about the developers working on ETH. However, honestly speaking, when you think of ETH, what’s your first thought? That’s right, Vitalik!
Even though Tron Black is heavily involved with the public when it comes to Ravencoin, there doesn’t seem to be that cult-like scenario that is so prevalent in so many other projects. I think much of my appreciation of Ravencoin comes down to ethics. It appears to be a lot less contaminated by traditional power players and egocentric personalities. That’s all good and well you might say, but is it a good investment?
Performance & Future Potential
Well, that’s the million-dollar question that applies to every other altcoin, including Ravencoin. So many projects look good on paper and have tremendous potential, and yet never really make it. On the other hand, past performance is one way of discerning how the market views a particular project. Ironically, Ravencoin launched at the peak of the 2017 bull market. Bitcoin topped in December 2017. However, alts peaked around January/February of the following year.
Ravencoin was launched in January of 2018 (began trading in March) and yet managed to perform exceptionally well despite the bear market. I want to compare Ravencoin’s performance to a relatively strong project such as Cardano. In the screenshot below you will be able to note that ADA dropped from approximately $1.08 in January to a bear market low of approximately $0.018.
In the same period, RVN dropped from approximately $0.025 to approximately $0.0089. If Cardano dropped in similar percentage terms, it would have only dropped to $0.39. However, it fell all the way down to $0.018. When you make such a comparison you begin to see how well RVN weathered the storm and managed to secure investor confidence.
Ravencoin also went on to surge from the low of $0.0089 to as high as $0.41 (depending on the exchange you reference) during the bull market of 2021. That’s almost a 50X, which is pretty reasonable. Unlike ETC, RVN actually has a use case. ETC ultimately exists for miners. There is no real relevance to the project. I suspect that over time, Ravencoin will gain even more ETC miners.
A quick visit to the official Ravencoin Twitter account will reveal that adoption is starting to pick up and there is real utility taking place. Proof of ownership, NFTs, tokenized real-world assets, project shares, and more. An excerpt from Binance Feed gives a short and concise explanation of Ravencoin.
The Ravencoin platform was developed by Bruce Fenton, Tron Black, and Joel Weight with the goal of enabling instant transactions between users around the world. The created token assets on the network can represent anything from fiat currencies to gold, including virtual goods and material objects, stocks and securities, etc. What Raven Network does is that it modernizes tangible world tradable assets and makes it more convenient for crypto users to gain rights to them.
This is ultimately the future of ownership and exchange. The fact that 100% of Ravencoin’s supply is issued to the public is another aspect that makes me more bullish. Creating tokens also requires 500 RVN to be burned, ultimately reducing supply. The greater the adoption, the greater the reduction. Factor in that RVN does not sit on the fence in regard to the “security debate” is yet another very important aspect, in my opinion.
Ravencoin is a project I am happy to load up on over time. I think that many people make the mistake of thinking it is like ETC, in that exists solely for mining purposes. There needs to be more awareness, but that’s the downside to not having a treasury and premining your way forward. I like the fact that Ravencoin chose ethics above growth. It’s actually quite commendable. Thanks for joining me on this dive into Ravencoin. See you next time.
The New Year Is Almost Upon Us
Well, it’s been a crazy year. We have seen and experienced so many financial disasters. Unfortunately, these events were outside of our control. Exercising good risk management and diversification is the only way you escaped the carnage. For many, it has however been somewhat of a nightmare. If you are still here, chances are, it’s not your first time!
As we move into the new year, it’s important to find and establish your pace. It’s going to be a long year. The traditional mindset identifies a bottom as the beginning of a bull market. I don’t share that ideology. I see most of 2023 as a period of continued accumulation. In such a scenario the bear is exhausted, and the bull is still asleep. It’s a prolonged “shift change” that continues to shake out market participants.
Overly ambitious market participants often succumb to the “inactivity” of this period. Sure, we may see $30K a lot sooner than many may think, but that’s not really anything in real terms. When prices have been suppressed for so long, investors exaggerate any move up. Remember, $30K is almost 60% from the all-time high. Nothing to write home about.
Strategy & Application
Regular readers will know that I mapped out my approach for this bear market according to the analysis that I did approximately eight months ago. I have held to that throughout 2022 and have not adjusted or deviated from my bottom prediction since it was first published back in May. Developing and appropriating strategies within my expectations (based on data and research) of future market movements has protected me during this time.
What this really means is that my actions today were decided almost a year ago. They are not impulsive but rather dedicated, predetermined, and disciplined. This is how you survive difficult seasons. Running around buying every dip is a fool’s errand. Living through market cycles gives you a deeper understanding and helps to formulate an accurate perspective.
I have already planned my approach for 2023 and will look to begin pacing myself for the marathon ahead. Unfortunately, I had a bit of a “disruption” recently. Yes, I happened to contract covid. I managed to keep up with my usual schedule during the first few days but then got “floored” a few days before Christmas. I seem to be pretty much recovered now, so am glad to get back to trading and other endeavors.
Fortunately, I didn’t miss much in trading terms, as the market has been eerily flat. This is usually the quiet before the storm. Volatility is not far off. Having a plan that is adhered to via daily disciplines and activities is vital for survival. Map your journey, find your pace, and begin moving toward the next stop in the journey.
See you in the next one!
The Most Common Selling Point
Tokenization is yet another way blockchain is busy reshaping the business and financial world. I have previously addressed tokenized real estate, addressing some benefits and potential pitfalls. For many, the most attractive aspect of tokenized real estate is that it removes barriers to entry. Real estate has always been a bit of a “rich man’s” game.
Investors are now able to invest as little as $50 and subsequently become owners of real estate. This is enormous in terms of creating opportunities for those who have been previously excluded from this particular market. Traditionally, investors would need to purchase an entire piece of real estate, which could cost anywhere between $200K and $500K.
Tokenization removes this barrier and ultimately creates an entirely new “class” of real estate investors. Those looking to eventually own their own home, now have a practical way to get started in the real estate market. A real estate investment via platforms such as Lofty.ai could eventually become a down payment, or eventually, capital to purchase an entire property.
An Extremely Powerful Advantage
This brings me to the point of what I believe is even more powerful than the removal of barriers to entry. Housing prices are dropping, and are expected to drop further in 2023. However, what is the benefit of a “lower price” if the interest rate is higher? Many people speak about the “profit” they made when they sold their homes. Interesting, how they only consider the buying price versus the selling price.
They never factored in how much more they paid over the years via their mortgage. As interest rates continue to rise, the settlement amount increases significantly over the period of a traditional mortgage. This is where tokenization smacks a blazing ace. Tokenization removes the dynamic of a mortgage. In other words, investors are spared the additional cost that a mortgage incurs over decades, which is significant, especially now.
This ultimately reduces the purchase price in real terms, as well as generates speedier returns. In other words, the tokenized model leverages the current drop in prices, as well as increasing interest rates in favor of the tokenized real estate investor. Of course, there are other benefits to utilizing a mortgage. However, if your investment allocation is not that large, you don’t really require those benefits and can use the tokenized model to your advantage.
The majority of tokenized real estate platforms allow a single investor to own as much as 10% of any given property. This can sometimes be increased to approximately 15% under certain conditions. Investors can begin building a real estate portfolio by owning fractional amounts of multiple properties. This is also a way to diversify against the risks involved with the tenant market and non-compliant tenants. As with any investment, research, and due diligence is always essential practice. This is not financial advice or an endorsement of any companies mentioned.
Will The Bear Market Defeat You?
A lot of new investors underestimate the mental and emotional strength required to take part in financial markets. When optimism and valuation begin to diminish, many investors choose the path being suggested to them, rather than choosing to forge their way forward. A strong conviction, together with a stubborn determination to match are two very necessary ingredients to any form of success.
Success is guarded by many challenges, difficulties, and hardships. Remember, once we re-enter a bull market, we will once again be labeled “lucky” by the no-coiners. Well, if it’s luck, why not hang around and get lucky? The truth is that the mental and emotional anguish is too much for these individuals. It’s easier to walk away. It’s also easier to label others as lucky rather than to acknowledge their determination and perseverance.
However, determination requires a plan of action and daily discipline. Surviving a bear market means different things for different people. For some, there is more “on the line” than for others. How you choose to navigate your way forward depends on you and your financial position. Being in a situation that demands a solution can sometimes be an incredible motivation. It has the potential to push you towards extending your borders, and even trying new strategies.
Motivation & Perspective
Motivation matters! Given the right motivation, many individuals will push beyond their comfort zones and begin experiencing growth in multiple areas of their life. This is yet another benefit of a bear market. However, if you don’t have the right perspective, you will be unable to appreciate and appropriate the correct course of action. For newcomers, one of the best ways to gain a healthy perspective is to learn from those who have been here before.
When Bitcoin has been trading above $60K, a drop to $30K looks like a bargain, especially to a noob. Unfortunately, when it comes to a bear market, discounts no longer matter. A bear market is a time to retreat… to the hills. This is where disciplined traders and investors gain an eagle’s eye view and begin strategizing and analyzing. The correct motivation from a healthy perspective is essential when it comes to successfully navigating a bear market.
A bear market forces market participants to improve their game. It’s either that or become collateral damage. The lessons I learned in the previous bear market have been instrumental in developing my strategic approach for the current bear market. This will again be the case for the next bear market. Learning by doing is really the only way to become efficient in the financial world.
A bear market will challenge all of your ideologies, as well as suggest new ideas. Do you know why so many failed to sell at the top of this market and repeated the exact same mistakes they made in 2018? Quite simply, there was no strategic adjustment. They simply believe they were out of sync and missed the market. Well, if you have done it twice in a row, chances are you will do it again! New ideas and approaches create adjustment by default. They force you to do things differently.
Remember, if you want a different outcome, you are going to have to adjust your behavior. Allow this bear market to highlight your mistakes, and then make adjustments that directly hinder you from repeating them again. Bear markets can be equally as profitable as bull markets. In this game, movement is money! It doesn’t matter which way, there are tools to take advantage of either scenario. I ignore traders who only trade long, for the simple fact that they are biased.
Markets are moving up and down all the time. Permabulls live in a delusion.
Decentralization Is Clearly Superior
Power corrupts, and it always will, there is simply no escaping it. Looking back over the course of 2022 reveals how so many centralized entities imploded despite their size and relevance. Every one of these events can be directly linked to a failure of “leadership”. A classic case of poor risk management, poor decision-making, and even fraud.
The initial concept of Bitcoin was to remove the middleman, and yet here he is wreaking havoc in an economic construct that no longer requires his presence or services. This is clearly the most ironic aspect of what has transpired in the Crypto world this year. This is where blockchains such as Hive begin to reveal their tremendous value.
Even though Hive is listed on a number of major exchanges, it is not reliant upon them and can trade independently. It is censorship resistant and decentralized. I think most of us understand that true decentralization is a dream, but that shouldn’t deter us from enjoying the level of decentralization that is available.
Hive enables users to own, earn, stake, and store Crypto with significantly reduced risk. As we move forward, mitigating risk will become even more important than it is now. Many have been handed out a few “hard lessons” during this current bear market. Whether they go on to learn from them remains to be seen. If anything, self-custody and decentralization have been the key to surviving 2022, along with some solid risk management.
The masses are always late to the party. Once the benefits and brilliance of Hive become more apparent to the herd, they will begin migrating. It’s Just a matter of time and pain. Censorship is still in its infancy. There is still a lot more to come. As Hive continues to grow, the ecosystem is beginning to incorporate more and more of what people want and need.
The key is to keep building. Why? Because when the masses arrive they are going to need a digital city full of opportunity and adventure. Eventually, people will be able to build much of “their world” on Hive. Decentralization is imperative in terms of securing future Hivers. Centralization is yet to play its “trump card”. If you think a strong case exists for decentralization, at this point, wait until 2025 and beyond.
Hive is an investment, no matter how you choose to approach it. It’s all about the long game and developing something of significant value. This is also one of the reasons why I became bullish on Cardano. Observing the meticulous development and patience of the team served only to encourage me. While many became irritated, I became convinced, and ultimately, bullish.
Ensuring the foundations are rock solid takes time, and if you want to build a behemoth, you are going to require just that: A rock-solid foundation upon which you can build with zero restrictions. Those who have the correct mindset need no convincing. They know how this process works and are committed to the journey.
Finding a way of being exposed to future growth while reducing as much risk as possible will become the mindset and approach of many investors going forward. Hive is an obvious choice, in my opinion.