Identifying future altcoin gems can be a rather risky and difficult task. A lot of coins and tokens experience an initial surge but not many of them qualify as long-term investments. I know what you are thinking, altcoins in general are not good long-term investments, right? Not necessarily, as there are multiple reasons for investing in an altcoin. Depending on the motivation, use case, and other functionalities, some altcoins manage to attract longer-term investors. I believe that HIVE and LEO, in particular, happen to fall into this class of altcoin.
What sets HIVE Apart?
Staking is always a good incentive for investors when considering altcoins. For the longer-term investor who is not necessarily concerned about short-term gains, staking makes sense. Staking enables investors to compound their stack over time. HIVE offers a form of staking that not only earns HIVE but also HBD. Powering up your HIVE not only enables a form of additional income but also makes holders a type of shareholder. Therefore, holding HIVE creates influence, which when combined with reputation has value beyond token price. I think that this is one of the challenges that come with this new economy, understanding that value has multiple expressions.
The monetization of contributions is something that is becoming more and more prevalent. The Hive ecosystem is a leading example of how well this idea can actually work. When you consider that HIVE hit a billion-dollar market cap valuation in 2021 it becomes clear that there is a future.
HIVE managed to reach this milestone without being plastered all over the media. This was very much healthy organic growth, which is the best form of growth to experience when building a solid foundation. Hive is a Web 3-based idea that encourages independence, which is exactly what makes HIVE’s independent growth so important and monumental. Leofinance has also seen growth in terms of the project and further DeFi expansion. People make use of the Hive ecosystem on a daily basis and it works! This is why HIVE has such a strong future. Even during these formative years community members are engaged and committed to the project, indicating tremendous conviction and further complimented by present value.
Investors See Value
This is why so many remain dedicated. They interpret future value and fully understand how good the risk/reward ratio is. Yes, pretty much everything heads south in a bear market but not everything heads north again once the sun comes out. Even though HIVE and LEO may suffer in the short term they stand more chance than most of rising again in the months and years to come. At worst, they remain somewhat stable and at best they go on to skyrocket. I personally don’t see much risk in investing in HIVE and LEO. The additional income via content creation, curation, and interest earned on HBD makes this one of the best risk/reward opportunities available in the Crypto market. This is solely my opinion and I guess hindsight will have the final say.
Bitcoin has been moving in a rather predictable range over the last while and it makes sense that eventually, it will move into a “new zone” This often takes place rather unexpectedly. We saw Bitcoin hit the $32.000 mark recently only to suffer a severe rejection. Bitcoin is now attempting to break this level yet again. A solid confirmed move above $32.000 would be very bullish but only in the short term. That needs to be remembered. If BTC goes on to reach $35.000, I would be seriously considering a short above $36.000, or sooner if the opportunity presents itself.
Bitcoin needs to make a decision fairly soon and will most likely be influenced by the stock market opening in a couple of hours. Lately, there have been a number of “fakeouts”, both to the upside and downside. It will be wise to wait for a definitive confirmation before opening a position. Ultimately, you want to see the price action retest the breakout or breakdown point. Bitcoin could also suffer another severe rejection at $32.000 and head back to the $29.500 mark again.
Both scenarios are displayed above and would likely make a nice trade with modest leverage. Skilled and experienced traders should only consider trading with leverage. I would not advise leverage trading for beginners. These are my views and interpretations of the current market. Do not consider this investment advice in any way. This is purely informational. Thanks for reading and let’s see what BTC does in the upcoming hours.
I continue to see more and more people falling prey to phishing attacks after they click on phishing links and connect their wallets to unknown platforms and websites. I initially put off writing this article because I thought it was a little obvious and therefore reasoned that people would already be practicing this simple trick. As it turns out, perhaps there are individuals out there that could benefit from this safety measure. Back in 2020, it was a lot safer connecting to Web 3 platforms. Cyber criminals were yet to realize the exploitable vulnerability that was before them. This has since changed and Web 3 has become plagued with criminal opportunists. However, there is a simple yet efficient way to avoid becoming a victim.
Create A Workhorse & Vault Wallet
The best way to protect your assets is to not expose them. The only way to do this is to create a workhorse wallet and a separate vault wallet. The idea here is to only hold a gas balance in your workhorse wallet. This wallet then in turn acts as a third party and facilitates transactions between your vault wallet, which holds your funds, and the protocols you connect to. In doing this your funds are never exposed to platforms and smart contracts. Once you have verified, or feel comfortable with a particular platform you can then fund the workhorse wallet and interact. When you receive funds from farming and other DeFi opportunities you can immediately move them from the workhorse to the vault.
An Empty Wallet
If the workhorse wallet is somehow compromised your assets remain safe. At worst, a single allocation could be compromised. I like having my assets unexposed in this way, it gives me some peace of mind. If you are not making use of certain assets then it makes sense to move them to a wallet that never connects to anything. Falling prey to a phishing scheme is not such a bad thing if your wallet is empty or near to empty. Criminals have a funny way of continuously getting smarter. Finding ways to protect yourself from ever-growing threats is going to become more and more important! Stay safe out there and remember that carelessness can be extremely costly!
It’s A Trader’s Market
The market has clearly shifted in favor of the trader over the past few months. To be honest, it makes sense. Why would you not consider alternative measures when prices plummet. Trading does have that one very specific advantage over hodling and that’s being able to play both sides of the market. I have personally executed a number of short trades recently and have enjoyed the clarity it provides. Hodlers do tend to suffer from a bullish bias because it’s the only way they make money. They therefore continually deceive themselves into thinking that the price is always going up. Hodling is one of the best long-term, low-stress strategies but it does become limiting and even frustrating in a bear market.
Why Not Do Both
If you have trading knowledge it’s a no-brainer to get busy trading in a bear market. You can still have and maintain your hodl portfolio but how about allocating a few percent to a trading portfolio? Investors don’t need to risk their entire portfolios in order to trade. I personally trade with a fraction of my entire portfolio. In this way, I am not risking my portfolio but am simultaneously gaining additional exposure to gains outside of traditional growth. Scalping can be a very good strategy in a bear market as there are numerous bounces after severe corrective moves. However, you don’t want to hang around long in a position, as they often collapse unexpectedly. Then of course there is shorting, which is perhaps a better approach once a bear market has been confirmed.
Perfect For Times Of Stagnation
Even though there has been a fair amount of volatility there has been no advancement. This is typical bear market territory, up and down activity along a road headed south. There will be no real growth for some time, which makes trading the perfect fit. It’s not a bad time to buy long-term positions but I think that alts will still offer much better discounts. Looking at my own bottom prediction, it still has a way to go. It might not reach it, or it may actually exceed it. Bear markets have a way of testing the patience and resolve of investors. Many don’t last and simply capitulate, only to return when prices begin to rise again.
It is not only great to offset the floating losses of your portfolio but closing profitable trades is also an encouragement. This is especially true when many are experiencing loss. It’s great to know you are increasing your portfolio, even if it is only marginal at this stage of the game. Once the tide turns it will appear a lot more impressive. Bear markets are challenging for everyone and finding ways to better face that challenge should be on your to-do list.
Increasing Crypto income during a bear market is so important. Especially if that income stays in Crypto or goes into Crypto. Having freshly generated funds near the bottom is vital if you want to accumulate at bargain prices. You want your portfolio to regain its glory days but you also want something more than that! You want to acquire new holdings at the bottom that will be multiplied many times over once your initial portfolio reaches previous highs. This is not going to happen without having capital on the side. Passive income models are great for this, along with trading! Don’t focus on the pain, there is nothing you can do to change the direction of the market. Rather spend your energy and time in ways that will benefit you once the market begins to turn.
Stay strong, remain focused! This too shall pass, eventually!
You Just Gotta Love Retail
For some reason, retail investors always believe the price is going up. I guess one can liken it to “youthful bliss”. There are some things that can only be learned through time and experience. Unfortunately, new retail traders have to pay their school fees as well. As mentioned previously, learning to trade both long and short helps tremendously when it comes to having an objective view of the market. Retail traders are generally overzealous when it comes to being bullish. This is however exactly what is needed to execute a perfect bull trap.
Looking at the bigger picture on the weekly chart reveals that BTC is captured inside a massive falling wedge. The long-term trend is clearly bearish and even a strong move up would eventually require a retest of the bottom of the wedge. This points towards a strong corrective move even if the price were to pump in the short term. I think most analysts were aware of this but perhaps allowed their optimism to overpower sound trading ideas. The problem with going long on this particular move is that the price is generally going to fall off of a cliff at a very unexpected time. This is exactly what happened. The graph below reveals a bull trap within a bull trap.
The price broke out from the yellow triangle pattern to the upside. This was a typical fake-out and reveals what I have just stated, “a very unexpected time”. Many would have interpreted this as the confirmation for the next leg up. However, it was the complete opposite. The graph paints a picture of a cliff face.
If you chose to avoid the graphs and technicals so as to open a long position based on a tweet of a guy sitting on mars then you deserve to get rekt, sorry to say. Along with this tweet was a recent statement from JP Morgan. The company placed Bitcoin’s fair value at $38K, which is just below the point at which BTC becomes bullish. The technical analysis reveals that the market is clearly trapped in a downward trend. Two significant “voices” then come out with statements that are interpreted as bullish. A bullish move in an overwhelming downtrend can only be a bull trap. Even if BTC managed to reach $38K it would have been shorted very heavily at that point. As mentioned this is the equivalent of catching a falling knife in a downtrend because you do not know exactly where the price will be hit with a cascading collapse.
Contrary To The Herd
I began to slowly build a short position on the day that Bitcoin began to rally. The screenshot below reveals my starting date for this position, which was the 30th of May. I began to add to it as the price continued to climb. I knew it would be an immediate and sudden collapse, which is why I continued to add to my position from an early point.
I decided to close this short a little prematurely and could have actually seen a lot more profit but I was happy with the return. I try to avoid greed as best as I can because a penny in the hand is worth more than two in the bush! A multitude of voices were calling for a strong move up and these voices were perhaps spurred on by JP Morgan and Musk. Knowledge of the “state of the market” combined with the fact that the bullish case was in contradiction to the true state of the market would have triggered a warning to those paying attention. This recent bull-trap is yet another incident of emotions over logic.
I have mentioned quite a number of times in recent posts how disappointed I am in the accuracy of well-known analysts. If you have done your homework, don’t be afraid of standing by your conviction. I would rather be wrong based on my analysis than simply follow the opinions of others. One speaks of taking responsibility for your investments, while the other would rather rely on another’s opinion. The initial motivation behind Crypto was independence, I like to hold to that as much as possible. Thanks for reading and see you in the next one!
The Ongoing Battle
I am sure that many will agree that ETH will continue to dominate the layer 1 space, especially with the shift to POS. Many are excluded from utilizing ETH-based projects due to exorbitant gas fees. The shift to proof-of-stake is expected to reduce gas fees considerably and subsequently increase the userbase. However, despite what the maxis would have you believe, we are not living in a single chain world. I expect there will be a handful of really valuable layer 1 chains a couple of years from now. I am betting on two that are already ranked within the Top 20! That’s right, Solana and Avalanche.
Reduced Exposure To ETH
I recently rebalanced my portfolio and reduced my exposure to ETH considerably. This is obviously to reduce risk through diversification, not that there is too much risk in ETH compared to other alts. The main reason though is that I have had a good run on ETH and even if it performs really well it’s not going to be amazing in relation to ROI. I have enjoyed an almost 50X return on ETH and it would be foolish not to be on the lookout for other up-and-coming projects. Some may argue that Solana and Avalanche are already positioned quite high and they are. However, their market cap valuations are dwarfed by ETH. In an expanding and growing market, I believe that there is still room for significant growth.
Identify & Allocate
Diversification is great but I still believe that you should hold a handful of coins that have a heavier allocation relative to the majority of the holdings in your portfolio. That percentage will vary from person to person and is in essence a reflection of what you believe will perform the best over time. Percentage weightings obviously drop in a bear market, as stablecoin weightings increase. Making a predetermined target of how many coins you actually want to accumulate by a certain time really helps a lot. This way you can plan and structure your allocations per week or month, or any other schedule you are happy with.
The Journey Of Accumulation
This for me is extremely rewarding! I love having a goal to work towards and as you begin to see your stack increasing, it becomes even more rewarding. My accumulation of SOL and AVAX is somewhat biased towards Solana. I believe that SOL will be right up there close to ETH eventually. AVAX in many ways is my backup. My allocation ratio here is 70% Solana and 30% Avalanche. It’s not an exact ratio, but it is approximately how it is unfolding. This might be adjusted in reaction to developments or setbacks. Nobody knows the future and it is best to remain as pliable as possible.
When it comes to stability, layer 1s are much safer options. SocialFi, DeFi, and other sectors are way more susceptible to heavy losses in a market correction. Investors want exposure to Crypto but they also inherently desire as much “safety” as possible. I think top-tier layer 1 projects with staking benefits will continue to attract investors.
Something that I mentioned in a recent post is the fact that many of the top analysts have been wrong more than they have been correct. This is why I made special note of the fact that my analysis is independent. Not only is it independent but also something that I do on a daily basis. I look for opportunities in the charts and then wait for confirmation. Trading just for the sake of trading is a very bad idea. You need to trade set-ups that have confluence and a high chance of success. Trading is a game of probabilities and the only rules that exist are the probabilities. Successful traders are basing their actions upon these probabilities as they see them begin to form and mature in the price action.
Trading outside of probable set-ups and analysis is nothing short of gambling. If you can’t explain why you opened a position, I can, it’s gambling! Opening a position without any data, analysis, or confluence to back it up is purely emotional. A good strategy also has rescue measures and ways to counter unexpected moves. If a trade goes against you, what are you going to do? This was one of the most important “secrets” I figured out after years of trading. There are a few strategic approaches that you won’t find anyone teaching. Once I learned how to execute these mathematically proportioned moves my success rate improved significantly.
I don’t mind missing a “move” and if you are trading according to disciplines you will miss moves in the price action. You will be trading according to what the charts and other metrics are telling you. Sometimes price action is sneaky and moves before “communicating the intention”. A good trader will ignore this move and wait for a move that meets the criteria. Sometimes noobs catch these “random” moves but it’s just luck, which is random and scarce. The disciplined trader knows that there will be plenty more opportunities. These opportunities are however not random or scarce but continuous and predictable.
Confluence Outside Of Technical Analysis
In an older post, I explained how utilizing emotional intelligence can be a highly effective indicator. When you find confluence beginning to form in other discernable metrics, including human behavior, you should really pay attention. Confluence is a powerful dynamic and a key ingredient to successful trading. Developing your own strategies and metric checklists is something that develops over time. I have found truly successful traders all have something in common. They dedicate hours to chart research and have spent a lot of time gaining experience in the art of accurately interpreting pattern formations.
Don’t Interpret Initial Losses As A Sign To Give Up
Many experience significant losses when they begin trading but this is usually solely due to the fact that they have zero experience and very little knowledge. Funny how people think they can succeed because the activity involves “making money”. The allure of wealth is deceptive beyond measure. Every successful trader will have plenty of stories of how they got rekt in their early trading experiences. Even if you go on to become a highly effective trader you are not going to get there without casualty. Everyone has to pay their “school fees”. Don’t let initial challenges deter you. Learn more, practice more, and be teachable. Having the correct mindset is always half the battle when it comes to any challenge or learning experience.
A Solid Reputation Since 2019
CoinPayU launched back in 2019 and has since become one of the most prominent and respected Crypto earning platforms online. Daily visits to the platform enable users to earn Crypto in a multitude of ways. All earnings are received in BTC but the site also enables withdrawals to a number of top altcoins as well. Selecting payment via one of the many altcoin options will simply see your BTC balance being converted to the equivalent value of whatever altcoin you have selected. This is great because you can slowly build up balances in multiple allocations. The platform enables users to withdraw every 72 hours, which means that if you so choose, you can rotate your payments. You can withdraw via Solana today and then via Near Protocol three days later.
A Few New Additions
CoinPayU has recently added a number of new deposit and withdrawal options. These are ROSE, XTZ, and NEAR. Old favorites such as ADA, SOL, and MATIC are still available. Each one of these options also sports its own faucet, which can be claimed every hour. As a free member, users can select four faucets to claim from every hour. So, today it could be SOL, ADA, MATIC, and ROSE. The following day could be switched around to four different faucets. The selection is applicable for 24 hours and is then reset so that users can select four different faucets for the day if they so choose. Considering that four claims can be made every hour has an additional benefit. Faucet earnings can be swapped, which means that if you wanted to stack up on NEAR you could simply swap all your faucet balances to NEAR.
Ads & Surveys
The same can be done for your earnings generated by viewing ads. There are tons of ads available in multiple formats and all earnings can once again be converted from BTC to any of the preferred options. This applies to surveys as well. CoinPayU is probably one of the best GPT sites, especially since the minimum withdrawal is 1500 sats. A great app to download on your phone and have on hand to monetize those idle moments. The app is available on Android with over 100K downloads. This is actually very high, as many users make use of the desktop version.
CoinPayU is definitely worth checking out as a way to stack some extra sats. This is especially true if you are wanting to stack altcoin sats. Prices are currently discounted and the altcoins on offer are pretty decent. As always, please perform your own due diligence.